Using novel data sets and computing systems, researchers at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory are simulating how climate change affects the safety and security of the country. This research can help policy and decision makers at federal, state and local levels quickly identify risk factors and develop real-world mitigation strategies.

For more than two decades, ORNL scientists have modeled environmental factors, such as temperature and precipitation, and population distribution. Currently, researchers are studying how climate change affects population density, critical infrastructure and security to better understand how extreme climate events can threaten physical safety and set off a domino effect of economic ramifications and other national security challenges.

In some cases, rising temperatures that reduce agricultural opportunities can lead to mass migrations away from struggling communities. In other cases, violent hurricanes and winter storms can disrupt electric grid operations, interrupting access to electricity and other utilities long after the initial climate threat has passed.

“We’re interested in contextualizing the tangible consequences that phenomena like sea level rise and temperature and precipitation changes have on humans,” said Carter Christopher, who leads ORNL’s Human Dynamics Section in the National Security Sciences Directorate. “Human security is a function of the security and resilience of a community, whether that’s a rural county, a small town or a major city, domestically or internationally.”

Researchers in the National Security Sciences Directorate and across the laboratory are studying the relationship between climate change and national security from multiple perspectives — yielding important results that decision makers can use to strategize how best to protect people before they end up in dangerous situations.